Temperature Variability Impact on Influenza A Transmission Dynamics
Sheri Kabashi, Level II Statistics Specialization
In this project, I employed mathematical modelling to analyze the 1968 Hong Kong Flu using the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. Initially replicating Smith and Moore's 2004 results, I then extended the model to incorporate environmental factors, specifically temperature. Utilizing data from Lowen and Steel (2014), the extended model showcased temperature-dependent influenza A transmission dynamics. The findings aligned with known patterns of influenza spread, emphasizing faster transmission in colder temperatures. The project highlights the importance of environmental factors in understanding and predicting disease transmission, providing insights for future research and interventions.